Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Profit in T - 4 Days, 21 Hours

The launch of warfronts has led to plenty of confusion for many players, if "WHY CANT I QUEUE" spam in my Trade chat is any indication. What we are able to do, what we are expected to do, and how and when we will be able to do it escapes most players, and even I don't fully understand it despite the breakdowns I've read.

But what I do know is what happened to Viridium on my server on the day Horde began their turn-in phase:

Cut and uncut viridium prices on Argent Dawn US.

The reason for this, of course, is that Horde were able to contribute 15x Straddling Viridium in exchange for AP, reputation, and advancing their progress toward being able to queue for the RTS-esque Battle for Stromgarde.

The enchanting turn-in was Seal of Versatility, and we can see this phenomenon reflected in its prices as well:

You can even see on these charts where supply increased and prices dropped, aka when the Horde completed their turn-in phase and began queueing.

On the Alliance side this meant that checking the table gave us a timer to let us know how long until the phase completes and we begin turn-ins.


So based on what we saw last week, it is reasonable to expect that certain crafts and materials will spike in 4 days and 21 hours, give or take a few hours for people to log in and realize they suddenly have a bunch of turn-in quests. (I will, of course, be sidling up on my AH mount to assist them in buying from that handy Liquidate person!)

Now, to my knowledge we do not know what of the turn-ins it will be, but we can reasonably expect to see all of them over time. Here are the possible turn-ins according to wowhead:


So, what do we do with this list? Obviously we want to have either the items themselves or the materials available to meet demand on the day the battle flips over. 

We're in an interesting time right now when we consider an expansion's life. We must consider, among other possible factors, these current elements:

  1. We are early enough in the expansion some people are still spam-crafting and selling at a loss to level professions.
  2. We are late enough in the early expansion that prices are beginning to rise after #1, as most people willing to do that have now already completed this phase of their profession leveling.
  3. We are early enough in the expansion that people are still thirsty for AP and rep.
  4. This rep is tied to unlocking Iron Dwarves/Mag'har Orcs, an extra incentive to "pay for rep."
  5. Many people will want to complete all the quests in the first week simply because they're new content, even though they may only do their own profession's later in the expansion.
So that's a lot to consider when deciding if we'll stockpile everything or only certain things. Some items which standout to me and why:

  • ✓ - Meaty Haunch - Meaty haunches are picked up while leveling, and unless someone is making feasts or crit food (which is not a hot stat this expac like haste is) they don't have a large need for it.
  • ✓ - Seasoned Loins - The mats (Stringy Loins) are dirt-cheap, which means a lot are available and that a lot of people skill up on this, meaning lots of the cooked version are often available as well. 
  • ✓ - Enchant Scrolls - The seal of x ring enchants are a massive part of leveling enchanting this expansion, so you can easily find a lot for cheap. Just note that Haste and Mastery are not represented on Wowhead's list!
  • ✓ - Gems - Similar to scrolls, the cut gems appear regularly under crafting cost due to needing to be used for skill-ups. You can also often find cheap uncut gems as people prospect for Kraken's Eyes and dump the byproducts. 
  • ? - Great Sea Catfish - This fish virtually useless except as fish oil. If you can pick it up significantly cheaper than fish oil, do so. But that's very price dependent.
  • ? - War-Scrolls - These are very beneficial/in-demand now with the beginning of Mythic+ runs. However, they're also a hot item for leveling inscription. Keep an eye out for new scribes dumping bulk scrolls for under mat cost as they level inscription, but don't expect to get tons before M+ pushers snatch em up!
  • ? - Battle Flags - If tailors are making these to level, you can probably get them at a discount. However, tailoring I found simple enough to level without making these virtually useless items. Keep an eye out, for sure, but there probably won't be a huge supply.

Everything else is pretty standard "use your brain" fare. You should now have an idea of what's a norm for server prices for you. For example, Monelite Ore on my server is still through the roof, so it will be difficult for me to find cheap mats for the Blacksmithing turn-ins.

At the end of the day I guess what I'm saying is to put these and/or their mats on a shopping list and collect cheap items when they aren't the turn-in for big profits when the warfront flips and they become the turn-in. 

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